Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
217 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2024

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 23 2024 - 00Z Tue Jan 30 2024

Models and ensembles solutions overall still reasonably agree that
the current airmass over the state with reduced moisture and flow
should mostly linger early week as surface ridging lingers. This
should limit precipitation chances in a mainly land/sea breeze
pattern. However, a deep moisture pooling front will slowly
approach from the west. Southerly flow in advance of the front
will gradually strengthen island winds into mid-late week while
gradually bringing in a more moist airmass to fuel
showers/convective downpours along with some gusty winds across
the islands as a the front pushes east as a lead upper trough/deep
low passes to the north of the state. Expect lingering moisture
and showers this weekend with the weakening and stalling front.
Highly energetic flow then setting up just to the north of the
state offers less certain potential for the forcing of an
additional frontal and enhanced axis of rain/convection approach
to the western islands later weekend into early next week to
monitor.

Schichtel