Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2024

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 24 2024 - 00Z Wed Jan 31 2024

A current airmass over the state with reduced moisture/showers and
flow should begin to transition into midweek. This is expected as
a deep moisture pooling front remains slated to slowly approach
the islands from the west. Southerly flow in advance of the slowly
weakening front will gradually strengthen island winds mid-late
week while gradually bringing in a more moist airmass to fuel some
showers/downpours across the state, prompted by upper trough/deep
low passage to the north of the state. Expect lingering moisture
and showers into this weekend with the stalling front. Highly
energetic flow then setting up just to the north of the state
offers less certain potential for the forcing of an additional
front and enhanced axis of moisture into the state that could fuel
another rain/convection approach into the western islands early
next week. A favored composite of guidance seems to offer a
reasonable forecast basis and good cycle to cycle continuity
through much of the coming week.

Schichtel