Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2024

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 29 2024 - 00Z Mon Feb 05 2024

Latest guidance remains agreeable and consistent with the forecast
through next weekend.  A leading front will reach the western
islands early in the week and then settle near the Big Island in
weakened form by mid-late week, followed by another front crossing
the area late in the week.  Expect strong southwesterly winds into
early this week ahead of the leading front.  There will be some
rainfall enhancement as the front drifts eastward over the state
through midweek but associated moisture anomalies in the
models/means remain modest (no more than one standard deviation
above climatology).  The associated moisture band should linger
over/near the Big Island into late week.  Around midweek or so the
winds behind the front may turn westerly and then steadily veer
toward northeasterly/easterly, and may be fairly light for a time,
as the next front approaches.  This trailing late week front may
produce a brief episode of enhanced showers as well.  Stronger
high pressure behind the second front will likely support a trend
toward brisk northerly winds on Friday, turning more
northeasterly/easterly by Saturday-Sunday.  Expect moisture to
decrease over the northwestern islands by Saturday while some
windward showers persist over the Big Island, followed by drier
conditions (precipitable water values reaching down to 1.5
standard deviations below normal) throughout the state by Sunday.

Rausch