Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2024

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 30 2024 - 00Z Tue Feb 06 2024

Today's models and ensembles have changed very little in terms of
consensus and continuity regarding the forecast pattern through
next Monday.  A leading front now entering the western islands
will continue eastward and settle near the Big Island by midweek,
lingering for another day or so as it weakens.  Strong
southwesterly winds ahead of the front early this week will trend
lighter as the front weakens.  Behind the front, expect winds to
be light and veering from westerly to northerly/easterly during
midweek.  Another front remains on schedule to pass through during
Thursday-Friday.  Trailing high pressure will promote a period of
strong winds, first from the north on Friday and then trending
toward easterly by Sunday-Monday. 

Both fronts will provide some rainfall enhancement this week,
though guidance has been consistent in showing moisture anomalies
no more than about one standard deviation above normal along the
first front and even lower with the second.  Guidance continues to
show a pronounced drier period during the weekend into Monday,
with precipitable water values possibly reaching as low as 1.5-2
standard deviations below climatology for a time.

Rausch