Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 AM EST Tue Jan 30 2024

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 31 2024 - 00Z Wed Feb 07 2024

Once again the guidance shows good agreement and continuity for
the general forecast through the first part of next week.  One
front is currently drifting through the main islands and will
weaken as it settles near the Big Island by midweek.  Winds will
trend lighter behind the front, veering from westerly to northerly
and then easterly.  A stronger front will likely cross the state
during Thursday-Friday.  Trailing high pressure will promote a
period of strong winds, first from the north on Friday and then
trending toward easterly by Sunday-Monday.  Brisk trades may turn
east-southeasterly by next Tuesday as the surface high reaches a
position northeast of the state.  Both fronts will provide some
rainfall enhancement this week, though guidance has been
consistent in showing moisture anomalies no more than about one
standard deviation above normal along the first front and even
lower with the second.  The second front will be supported by
stronger dynamics aloft though, potentially offsetting the lesser
deep moisture.  Guidance has been consistent so far with a
pronounced drier period during the weekend with precipitable water
values possibly reaching as low as 1.5-2 standard deviations below
climatology for a time.  Consensus shows moisture values gradually
increasing early next week but still remaining well below
climatology, while upper ridging approaches/reaches the area. 
Thus expect any windward-focused showers to remain light into next
Monday-Tuesday.  

Rausch