Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EST Wed Jan 31 2024

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 01 2024 - 00Z Thu Feb 08 2024

Models/ensembles remain consistent and agreeable for the expected
pattern through the next seven days.  A leading front settling
near the Big Island should dissipate shortly, yielding a day or so
of light winds that will favor sea/land breeze influence on
showers.  A more potent front should cross the state during
Thursday-Friday.  Trailing high pressure will support a period of
strong winds, first from the north on Friday and then trending
toward easterly by Sunday-Monday.  Persistence of the high
pressure northeast of the state will likely maintain brisk trades
from the east or east-southeast through midweek.  The initial
dying front and then the late week front will provide some
rainfall enhancement, though guidance has been consistent in
showing moisture anomalies no more than about a half standard
deviation above normal during mid-late week.  However the second
front will be supported by stronger dynamics aloft, potentially
offsetting the modest moisture anomalies.  Guidance still shows a
pronounced drier period during the weekend with precipitable water
values possibly reaching as low as 1.5-2 or so standard deviations
below climatology for a time.  Consensus shows moisture values
increasing a little from there for the early-mid week time frame
but still remaining well below climatology.  An upper ridge axis
should reach a position just west of the main islands during that
time while there may still be some shortwave energy filtering
through the mean ridge.  The combination of upper features and
below-average moisture should generally keep windward focused
showers in the lighter half of the spectrum.

Rausch