Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
238 AM EST Thu Feb 01 2024

Valid 00Z Fri Feb 02 2024 - 00Z Fri Feb 09 2024

Today's guidance continues the recent run of remarkably agreeable
and consistent forecasts for the general pattern through seven
days out in time.  Lingering moisture from a dissipated front
along with light winds will initially support showers with a
land/sea breeze influence.  Then a well-defined front will cross
the state during Thursday-Friday.  Trailing high pressure will
support a period of strong winds, first from the north on Friday
and then trending toward easterly from Sunday onward.  Persistence
of the high pressure northeast of the state will likely maintain
brisk trades from the east or east-southeast through Thursday,
with wind speeds possibly nudging a tad lower around midweek.  The
late week front will provide some rainfall enhancement, with
guidance consistent in showing moisture anomalies no more than
about a half standard deviation above normal but supporting upper
dynamics that could at least partially offset the modest moisture
anomalies.  As drier air moves in, expect precipitable water
values to reach as low as 1.5-2 or so standard deviations below
climatology during the weekend (especially Saturday).  Consensus
shows moisture values increasing a little from there after the
weekend but still remaining 1-1.5 standard deviations below
normal.  An upper ridge axis should get close to the main islands
next week while there may still be some shortwave energy filtering
through the mean ridge.  The combination of upper pattern and
below-average moisture should generally keep windward focused
showers in the lighter half of the spectrum.

Rausch