Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 11 2024 - 00Z Sun Feb 18 2024

The surface high that is initially northeast of Hawaii will
continue drifting eastward away from the region over the weekend. 
This will allow for a col to develop within the subtropical ridge
axis that is expected to exist through the middle of next week. 
Model guidance has trended more amplified with a surface
trough/cold front that should approach the state Monday night and
into early Tuesday, and then a second frontal boundary approaches
on Thursday.  High pressure gradually builds in from the west
going into next week based on the ensemble means.

The weaker than usual pressure gradient that is expected through
the weekend and into Monday will result in mainly light low level
winds that will initially be out of the southeast, and then become
more variable with the col centered over the Islands.  Winds may
become northerly for the northwestern Islands on Tuesday, and then
a stronger surge out of the north late in the week if the cold
front clears the state.  Some isolated to scattered showers are
possible for the favored terrain, and perhaps a modest increase in
rainfall with the front on Thursday, but otherwise no organized
areas of heavy rainfall are anticipated.

Hamrick