Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2024

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 12 2024 - 00Z Mon Feb 19 2024

The Hawaii domain will be within a col in the subtropical ridge
going into the beginning of the work week.  The first frontal
boundary approaches the state Monday night and into early Tuesday,
and then a second and likely stronger frontal boundary approaches
on Thursday, and then clears the Big Island by Friday morning. 
High pressure gradually builds in from the west going into the end
of the week based on the ensemble means, with the surface high
centered just north of the far northwestern Islands by next Sunday.

The weaker than usual pressure gradient that is expected through
the weekend and into Monday will result in mainly light low level
winds that will initially be out of the southeast, and then become
more variable with the col centered over the Islands.  Winds may
become northerly for the northwestern Islands on Tuesday, and then
a stronger surge out of the north late in the week as the cold
front clears the state, followed by northeasterly flow.  Some
isolated to scattered showers are possible for the favored
terrain, and perhaps a modest increase in rainfall with the front
on Thursday, but otherwise no organized areas of heavy rainfall
are anticipated.

Hamrick