Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 13 2024 - 00Z Tue Feb 20 2024

The Hawaii domain will be within a col in the subtropical ridge
for the first half of the work week.  The first frontal boundary
approaches the state Monday night and into early Tuesday, and then
a second and likely stronger frontal boundary approaches on
Thursday, and then clears the Big Island by Friday morning.  High
pressure gradually builds in from the west going into the end of
the week based on the ensemble means, with the surface high
centered just north of the far northwestern Islands by next Sunday.

The weaker than usual pressure gradient that is expected through
midweek will result in mainly light low level winds, and then a
stronger surge out of the north late in the week as the cold front
clears the state, followed by northeasterly flow.  Some isolated
to scattered showers are possible for the favored terrain, and
perhaps a modest increase in rainfall with the front on Thursday,
but otherwise no organized areas of heavy rainfall are anticipated.

Hamrick