Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 15 2024 - 00Z Thu Feb 22 2024

Model guidance has been consistent with a relatively strong cold
front reaching the northwestern Islands on Thursday morning, and
then clearing the Big Island by Friday afternoon, bringing
slightly cooler temperatures and lower humidity.  High pressure
gradually builds in from the west going into the weekend based on
the ensemble means, with the surface high centered just north of
the main Islands by next Monday before moving to a position
northeast of the state by Tuesday based on the ensemble means.  A
col may develop within the main subtropical ridge axis by next
Wednesday with a weak frontal boundary approaching the
northwestern Islands.

The passage of the cold front will bring a stronger wind surge out
of the north late Thursday into Friday as the cold front clears
the state, followed by northeasterly flow over the weekend that
gradually veers to the east.  There will likely be some increase
in shower coverage across the Islands for the end of the week as
the front passes, but otherwise no organized areas of heavy
rainfall are anticipated.

Hamrick