Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
247 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2024

Valid 00Z Wed Feb 21 2024 - 00Z Wed Feb 28 2024

Trades around moderate levels are forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday as a surface high weakens and tracks east away from
Hawaii. With drier than average moisture levels in place under a
ridge aloft, only limited showers are expected.

By the latter half of the week, trades look to strengthen and veer
a bit more southeasterly. This is in response to another surface
high well north of Hawaii contrasting with upper and surface lows
developing well west of the islands and creating a stronger
pressure gradient. Models continue to show some spread in how far
east the lows and associated frontal system get to the state, but
the best consensus is that the cold front and greatest focus for
moisture should stay to the west. However, precipitable water
values do look to moisten up late week and especially by the
weekend, while a generally northwest-southeast oriented front to
the east of the main system slowly pushes through. This will
likely increase coverage of showers. Reasonably moist conditions
look to persist into early next week while breezy easterly winds
continue and promote windward/mauka showers.

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