Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 25 2024 - 00Z Sun Mar 03 2024

It generally remains the case that recent guidance reasonably
agrees that an upper low and associated surface low will meander
to the northwest of Hawaii in the short term, with a surface high
set well north of Hawaii. This combination supports southeastward
veered and breezy trade winds. Model guidance is agreeable that
the frontal system associated with the low (and potentially heavy
rain along the cold front) will stay west of the state, though
some enhanced moisture may sneak into the western islands. To the
east of the main system, a generally northwest-southeast oriented
moisture front still looks to slowly push through the state this
weekend. Some enhanced showers are possible along the front. Into
next week, breezy easterly trades should prevail as surface high
pressure well north is reinforced by another high. Around average
moisture in place will lead to windward/mauka showers, with some
perhaps spilling into leeward areas. This pattern looks to persist
through much of next week.

Schichtel