Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 AM EST Fri Mar 01 2024

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 02 2024 - 00Z Sat Mar 09 2024

Latest guidance agrees that a series of surface highs tracking to
the north of the state will maintain brisk to strong trades though
the period, with primary shower focus over windward/mountain
areas.  Consensus shows that shortwave energy dropping
southeastward toward/into the region will briefly lift enhanced
moisture into the Big Island and vicinity around Sunday-Monday,
with some heavier rainfall possible given the combination of
moisture and decreased stability.  Some degree of upper troughing
may linger over the area after Monday and continue to enhance
showers, but there is reasonable agreement that moisture should
get suppressed farther south with time.  This should lead to an
overall lighter shower trend relative to Sunday-Monday.  By late
in the week the 00Z GEFS/12Z ECens means cluster with the 00Z
ECMWF which shows a more pronounced drying trend in terms of PWATs
versus the 00Z GFS.

Rausch