Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 AM EST Thu Mar 07 2024

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 08 2024 - 00Z Fri Mar 15 2024

High pressure settling to the north-northwest of the state through
the weekend will maintain brisk to strong trades that will focus
showers over windward/mountain terrain.  Rainfall totals should
trend lower compared to midweek as an upper trough over the area
weakens and precipitable water values hold below climatology over
most areas aside from perhaps the Big Island.  Then guidance
continues to suggest that energy aloft west-southwest of the main
islands through the weekend will consolidate into an upper low
that would most likely track over the central-southeastern islands
Monday-Tuesday before opening up and lifting out ahead of an
approaching large scale upper trough and surface front.  With
continued differences in magnitude (and the GFS remaining highest)
there is general agreement that precipitable water values and
rainfall should increase in association with this upper low early
next week.  Meanwhile the surface high to the north will
accelerate eastward, leading to some slackening of the trades. 
Latest GFS/GEFS runs have trended faster over the past 24 hours
for the front forecast to cross the area around midweek, yielding
better agreement than seen yesterday.  Expect brisk northerly
winds to spread across the islands from west to east behind the
front.

Rausch