Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 AM EST Sat Mar 09 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 10 2024 - 00Z Sun Mar 17 2024

High pressure settling to the north-northwest of the state through
the weekend will maintain brisk to strong trades that will focus
showers over windward/mountain terrain, but nothing too
significant in terms of rainfall totals as an upper trough over
the state is weakening. This general pattern should hold through
the weekend before the guidance shows energy to the west/southwest
of the islands consolidating into an upper low which tracks over
Hawaii early next week. There are plenty of lingering
uncertainties in the details, but models do show some general
agreement that precipitable water values and rainfall should
increase in association with this upper low. Meanwhile, the
surface high to the north will accelerate eastward in response to
a cold front and deepening trough moving in from the west. This
should bring brisk northerly winds spreading from west to east
following the frontal passage around next Wednesday-Thursday next
week. More stable and drier conditions should follow next
Friday-Saturday as upper ridging moves in over Hawaii. 

Santorelli