Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
325 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 22 2024 - 00Z Fri Mar 29 2024

A surface high will build in north of Hawaii around 30-35 degrees
north through the end of the week, and then should be positioned
northeast of the Islands by the weekend.  A col likely develops
within this ridge across the far northwestern Islands by early
next week based on the ensemble means, with a frontal boundary
passing well north of the state.  The high then rebuilds north of
the state by next Thursday.  Aloft, a positively tilted 500mb
trough is expected to extend near and southeast of the Big Island
Friday into next weekend based on the ensemble means.

The normal trade wind induced showers can be expected most days
for the northeast facing terrain, although there may be an
increase in rainfall coverage on Sunday and Monday depending on
the evolution of the upper trough, with the GFS keeping most of
the heavier rain south of the Islands.  Trade wind flow should
generally be out of the east-northeast most days, perhaps becoming
more easterly by Monday and Tuesday with the core of the surface
high becoming centered northeast of the Islands.

Hamrick