Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 28 2024 - 00Z Thu Apr 04 2024

Breezy trade winds are forecast for the next couple of days as a
strong surface high sets up well north of Hawaii. Meanwhile some
weak troughing aloft may decrease stability a bit and allow for
some showers. These would generally favor windward/mauka areas
with some potentially spilling leeward. By the weekend, the
pressure gradient looks to relax somewhat as the surface high
pulls northeast, leading to moderate trades while moisture levels
dry out a bit and sit around average.

Then into next week, mid-upper troughing is likely to stretch
southward through much of the Pacific over Hawaii. This will push
a surface cold front ahead of it, but models vary regarding if and
when this front would push through the state. The 00Z GFS has the
front passing through Tuesday-Wednesday while the ECMWF has the
front stalling north but coming through perhaps midweek. In any
case, moisture is likely to pool near and south of the front,
leading to increasing rain potential early next week.


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