Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 29 2024 - 00Z Fri Apr 05 2024

Breezy to windy trades are forecast for the next day or two as a
strong surface high sets up well north of Hawaii. Meanwhile some
weak troughing aloft may decrease stability a bit and allow for
some showers. These would generally favor windward/mauka areas
with some potentially spilling leeward. By the weekend, the
pressure gradient looks to relax somewhat as the surface high
pulls northeast, leading to moderate trades while moisture levels
dry out a bit and sit around average.

Then into next week, mid-upper troughing is likely to stretch
southward through much of the Pacific over Hawaii. This trough
will push a surface cold front ahead of it, but models vary
regarding if and when this front would push through the state. The
00Z GFS stalls the front for a bit but then pushes it through
around Wednesday-Thursday, while the 00Z ECMWF never has it
passing through. In any case, moisture is likely to pool near and
south of the front, leading to increasing rain potential early to
mid-next week. Another strong surface high building north of
Hawaii will lead to increasing trades again as well.


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