Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 AM EDT Sat Mar 30 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 31 2024 - 00Z Sun Apr 07 2024

Island trades should gradually moderate this weekend in a
relatively dry windward terrain shower pattern as an anomalously
strong high pressure to the north of the state loses influence.
Models and ensembles also generally agree that full latitude upper
troughing upstream will shift gradually eastward across the
central Pacific through early next week. The southern portion of
the trough is expected to split into a closed upper trough and
low/disturbance to the northwest of the state by
Tuesday/Wednesday. Most guidance meanders the system through later
next week while gradually losing influence. Accordingly, expect a
moisture/instability pooling associated surface cold front to work
across the central Pacific early next week. However, the front
should slow/stall with approach toward the state into mid-later
next week. Moisture pooling and lead influx offers increasing rain
potential toward the state as another strong surface high builds
to the north of Hawaii and increases island trades. This solution
is well defined by a favored model composite, bolstering forecast
confidence.

Schichtel