Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Sat May 04 2024

Valid 00Z Sun May 05 2024 - 00Z Sun May 12 2024

Guidance agrees that surface highs strengthening and consolidating
to the north of Hawaii will favor breezy to locally strong trade
flow through the weekend into early next week. Meanwhile model
guidance also remains in fairly good agreement and a favored
composite shows a mid-upper trough/low centered west of Hawaii
late week and then coming overhead by early next week. This could
provide some instability for increased showers, which would favor
windward and mauka areas given the increasing trades. Slightly
above average moisture anomalies may peak around Monday-Tuesday.
Rainfall totals do not appear to be significantly high though.
This wet trade wind pattern looks to continue into much of next
week, though trades may decrease slightly later next week. This
would be especially so if the latest solutions of the 00 UTC
Canadian and trends from the 00 UTC UKMET come to pass with a much
more robust digging of upper trough energy southward toward the
islands later next week. While ensemble support is much more in
line with the 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF with this feature, there is at
least an amplified upstream upper ridge in support of digging to
monitor over the next few guidance cycles.

Schichtel