Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 AM EDT Mon May 06 2024

Valid 00Z Tue May 07 2024 - 00Z Tue May 14 2024

Surface high pressure built to the north of Hawaii is favoring
breezy island trades as an upper weakness works over the state.
Expect some instability showers for windward and mauka areas
fueled by pooled moisture. Trades should decrease through the
upcoming week as the supporting high weakens with onset of ample
mid-latitude upper troughing/height falls and lead surface frontal
approach and more moist trade response into the islands. Guidance
has trended toward development of a more amplified upper
trough/low over the state heading into and through the weekend
that may be reasonable considering amplified upstream upper
ridging. If manifested, this would favor a wetter pattern with
potential for heavier rainfall than now shown in most guidance.

Schichtel