Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Valid 00Z Sat May 18 2024 - 00Z Sat May 25 2024

...Heavy rain threat late week into the weekend...

The latest guidance continues to indicate that the deep Kona low
north-northwest of Hawaii and associated surface boundary reaching
the main islands will support heavy rainfall and flash flood
threats progressing gradually from the central to western islands
through the weekend. By early next week, the models show good
agreement the low should weaken, but general troughing being
maintained to the west of the state into mid week. This will bring
moderate east-southeasterly winds and both a windward and sea
breeze focus for showers. Rainfall should generally be lighter
than the weekend, though the combination of PWATs staying somewhat
above normal and upper level impulses could still provide some
localized enhancement.

Santorelli