Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 AM EDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 04 2024 - 00Z Tue Jun 11 2024

On Monday, expect a pattern favorable for showers across the state
and perhaps even thunderstorms over the Big Island, as a closed
low aloft should allow for some instability to develop while above
normal moisture (precipitable water values) come in. An elongated
surface high pressure system is in place to keep trades breezy, so
many showers should focus in windward/mauka areas. Moisture levels
could be slow to drop into Tuesday, but the inversion aloft will
not allow for much shower development, per the HREF. Trades may
stay breezy Tuesday but gradually drop Wednesday and especially
Thursday as the elongated surface high is likely to split north of
Hawaii and decrease the pressure gradient. Meanwhile mid-upper
heights will rise as the pattern aloft flips to ridging. Thus a
dry pattern with land/sea breezes in some areas is forecast for
late week. Trades look to gradually increase a bit into the
weekend and early next week.


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