Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Valid 00Z Wed Jun 19 2024 - 00Z Wed Jun 26 2024

Guidance continues to agree in depicting a persistent trade
pattern through the period, favoring windward and mountain focus
for showers but with moisture straying to other locations at
times.  High pressure to the north of the state will support brisk
to strong winds through the period, especially from Wednesday
onward.  Latest models and ensembles have been trending drier/more
suppressed with an axis of moisture that has been forecast to
cross the state from east to west during Tuesday-Wednesday on the
east side of a departing upper low. Consensus still shows some
drier air passing through on Thursday, a rebound Friday-Saturday
(higher precipitable water values brushing the northwestern
islands), and then a decrease toward below-climatology values for
the first half of next week.  Within this pattern of fluctuating
moisture, guidance indicates most rainfall will be in the lighter
half of the spectrum.

Rausch