Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Jul 28 2024 - 00Z Sun Aug 04 2024

Guidance continues to show high pressure along 40N latitude
tracking from east to west during the period, supporting a trade
pattern with primarily windward/mountain focus for showers. Gusty
winds may continue through Sunday, with speeds generally
decreasing thereafter as the high continues westward and upper
troughing approaches from the northeast. Guidance agrees that most
of the main islands should remain in an axis of below-climatology
precipitable water values for several days with upper ridging
through the first part of next week also helping to keep rainfall
totals on the light side. By Tuesday-Thursday there is some spread
for details of the upper trough pushing in from the northeast and
sliding north of Hawaii, but the ensemble means offer a reasonable
starting point for this aspect of the forecast. Trades may
increase again later next week as an upper ridge builds east/over
the islands.

Santorelli