Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Valid 00Z Fri Aug 16 2024 - 00Z Fri Aug 23 2024

A generally wet and breezy trade wind pattern will be in place
across Hawaii for the rest of this week into next week. Moderate
trades Thursday will restrengthen to breezy levels by Friday as
surface high pressure meandering around 40-45N will maintain the
typical pressure gradient for the trade wind pattern. Through the
period, some showers are possible favoring typical windward/mauka
areas but occasionally spilling into leeward areas. Showers will
be supported Thursday by troughing in the mid-upper levels, and
periodic moisture increases will move across the state as well,
but widespread heavy rain is not expected. The surface pressure
pattern would likely keep any central Pacific tropical systems
that may form next week to the south of Hawaii through this
forecast period. However, some increased moisture could advect
into at least the Big Island at some point early next week from a
possible tropical low, but models vary on timing. Then toward the
end of next week, future forecasts will have to monitor a more
notable model signal for tropical moisture if not a tropical
system itself to affect the state.

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