Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Valid 00Z Sat Aug 17 2024 - 00Z Sat Aug 24 2024

Model and ensemble forecast guidance remains reasonably well
clustered for much of the next week in a pattern with seemingly
above normal predictability. Trades will strengthen and maintain
breezy levels as surface high pressure builds and bridges to the
north of the state as centered around 40-45N. Through the period,
some showers are possible favoring typical windward/mauka areas,
but occasionally spilling into leeward areas. Showers will be
supported by nearby mid-upper level troughing, and periodic
moisture increases will move across the state, but widespread
heavy rain is not expected. The surface pressure pattern would
likely keep any central Pacific tropical systems that may form
next week to the south of Hawaii through this forecast period.
However, some increased moisture could advect into at least the
Big Island early next week and again later next week from possible
tropical low/convective developments now being monitored.

Schichtel