Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Aug 18 2024 - 00Z Sun Aug 25 2024

Forecast guidance remains reasonably well clustered for much of
the next week in a pattern with seemingly above normal
predictability. A favored model and ensemble composite indicates
that island trades will strengthen and maintain breezy levels as
surface high pressure builds and bridges to the north of the state
as centered around 40-45N. Through the period, some showers are
possible favoring typical windward/mauka areas, but occasionally
spilling into leeward areas. Showers may be supported by nearby
mid-upper level troughing, and periodic moisture increases will
move across the state, but widespread heavy rain is not expected.
The surface pressure pattern would likely keep any central Pacific
tropical systems that may form next week to the south of Hawaii
through this forecast period. However, some increased moisture
could advect into at least the Big Island early next week and
again later next week from possible tropical low/convective
developments now being monitored.

Schichtel