Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 19 2024 - 00Z Mon Aug 26 2024

Model and ensemble solutions remains reasonably well clustered for
much of the coming week in a pattern with seemingly above normal
predictability. A favored guidance composite indicates that island
trades will strengthen and maintain breezy levels as surface high
pressure builds and bridges to the north of the state. Through the
period, some showers are possible favoring typical windward/mauka
areas, but occasionally spilling into leeward areas. Showers may
be supported by nearby mid-upper level troughing, and periodic
moisture increases will move across the state, but widespread
heavy rain is not expected. The surface pressure pattern would
likely keep any central Pacific tropical systems that may form
this week to the south of the islands through the regular
workweek. However, some increased moisture could advect into at
least the Big Island early week and again later week from possible
tropical low/convective developments now being monitored well to
the southeast of the islands by the National Hurricane Center and
Central Pacific Hurricane Center. It seems increasingly possible
that the closer approach of a consolidated tropical system could
lead to more impactful tropical moisture into the Big Island next
weekend.

Schichtel