Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Valid 00Z Sat Aug 24 2024 - 00Z Sat Aug 31 2024

...Heavy rain and wind threats from T.S. Hone this weekend with
uncertain effects from Gilma later next week...

The dominant focus of the forecast will initially be on T.S. Hone,
for which the Central Pacific Hurricane Center is currently
issuing advisories.  The official CPHC track has Hone passing just
to the south of the Big Island during the weekend, leading to the
greatest heavy rainfall/flash flood and high wind threats being
over the Big Island as well.  Remaining portions of the state may
see some heavy rainfall and strong winds depending on the exact
track of Hone.  Monitor the latest CPHC products for updated
information on the track of Hone and the associated hazards. 
After Hone passes by, expect light to moderate trades early-mid
week with windward/mountain-focused showers.  Rainfall totals may
increase a little by Wednesday as moisture rebounds with the
approach of Gilma, currently a hurricane and forecast to weaken to
a tropical storm by early next week.  By next Thursday-Friday,
guidance shows a fair amount of spread for Gilma, with the 00Z
GFS/ECMWF tracking the system just north of the islands but the
CMC farther south near the Big Island.  There is similar spread
among machine learning models that have a defined surface
reflection.  Associated moisture should increase rainfall after
midweek, but otherwise the specifics for rain and wind will be
very sensitive to the exact track of Gilma.

Rausch