Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 26 2024 - 00Z Mon Sep 02 2024

...Heavy rain and wind threats from T.S. Hone this weekend with
uncertain effects from Gilma later in the week...

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center continues to issue advisories
for T.S. Hone, which is in the process of tracking just to the
south of the Big Island.  Hone will bring threats of heavy
rainfall/flash flooding and high winds to the southeastern islands
and the Big Island in particular on Sunday.  Remaining portions of
the state may see heavy rainfall and/or strong winds to a less
extreme magnitude.  Monitor the latest CPHC products for updated
information on the track of Hone and the associated hazards.

After Hone's departure, the general theme of the forecast is
fairly consistent compared to 24 hours ago but with persistent
spread/variability for Hurricane Gilma which should weaken to a
post-tropical remnant low by the time it nears the islands late in
the week.  Expect trades to return to moderate levels next
Monday-Wednesday, with Tuesday providing a narrow window of
relatively lower moisture and rainfall.  Guidance still suggests
that rainfall may rebound a little by Wednesday as a band of
moisture advances ahead of Gilma.  The Thursday-Saturday period
remains uncertain.  Latest GFS runs have reverted back to the
northern side of the spread (north of the main islands) for
Gilma's lingering surface reflection with the Canadian/ECMWF/UKMET
models farther south (into the islands).  Timing remains an issue
as well, with the Canadian straying faster than other dynamical
guidance.  Latest machine learning models vary some for latitude
as well while most are in the middle to faster half of the timing
spread.  Aside from the GFS that diverts more moisture to the
north, the majority consensus of other models/means would have
above-climatology moisture and potential for locally enhanced
rainfall through late week into Saturday.  Even with some moisture
persisting into Sunday, there is a general theme of somewhat lower
rainfall as Gilma dissipates/departs.

Rausch