Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024

Valid 00Z Tue Aug 27 2024 - 00Z Tue Sep 03 2024

...Improving conditions after Hone's departure followed by
uncertain effects from Gilma later in the week...

Hurricane Hone is currently south of the western islands and
continuing on its westward path. Conditions over the state should
improve on Monday but some areas of enhanced rainfall and brisk
winds will still be possible.  Check the latest Central Pacific
Hurricane Center products for more information on Hone, which
should weaken to a tropical storm in the near term.

Trades will remain in the moderate to brisk range through
Wednesday or Thursday with windward/mountain shower focus.  A
narrow band of somewhat lower precipitable water values should
pass through Tuesday, leading to a modest decline in rainfall
totals.  Guidance continues to show an area of moisture arriving
on Wednesday well ahead of Gilma, which should increase rainfall,
and persistence of above-climatology PWATs into Saturday will
likely help to maintain some enhancement of rainfall.  Gilma
should approach in much-weakened form by late week, with the most
likely track per extrapolation of the 03Z National Hurricane
Center advisory being just north of the main islands.  There is
still some spread in the guidance so uncertainty remains for
precise effects from the lingering reflection of Gilma.  After
Gilma passes by, high pressure to the northeast should help to
establish moderate to brisk trades once again into early next
week.  Guidance offers mixed signals for how much moisture may
decrease by Sunday-Monday (ECMWF/ECens mean lower with PWATs than
the GFS/GEFS) but consensus shows upper ridging becoming more
prevalent, leading to a drier trend overall.

Rausch