Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 28 2024 - 00Z Wed Sep 04 2024

...Continuing to monitor potential effects of weakening Hurricane
Gilma later in the week...

Guidance is consistent through Wednesday, showing moderate to
brisk trades and windward/mountain shower focus along with a dip
in rainfall Tuesday as a band of drier air passes through,
followed by a rebound Wednesday as moisture ahead of Hurricane
Gilma reaches the area.  As Gilma approaches the state in a
much-weakened form late this week, there is still some track and
timing spread for the remaining surface reflection and associated
moisture. The overall consensus has been consistent over the past
day for a track just north of the main islands, while latest
solutions support progression a little faster than the 00Z GFS. 
Gilma's passage will disrupt the trades temporarily while
maintaining above-climatology precipitable water values into late
week.  Behind Gilma, T.S. Hector should have minimal impact on the
state aside from a remnant band of moisture passing through around
late weekend.  High pressure to the northeast should help to
establish moderate to brisk trades once again by Sunday-Tuesday. 
Guidance agrees on PWATs declining after Sunday while upper
ridging becomes more prevalent, supporting a lighter trend for
showers.

Rausch