Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
450 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2024

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 07 2024 - 00Z Sat Sep 14 2024

The latest ensemble means are in good agreement on an amplifying
upper trough to the northeast of the Islands through the upcoming
weekend and into early next week, and a col trying to develop over
the state as the subtropical upper ridge breaks down some.  This
will support a meandering stationary front that would likely be
over the central and northern Islands, and the guidance suggests a
surface low will probably form near 30 degrees north and slowly
drift west through the middle of the week.

In terms of sensible weather, light to occasionally moderate
trades can be expected through the weekend, and then lighter and
more variable flow for the first half of the week with the col in
place and the frontal boundary nearby.  The mainly terrain favored
showers can be expected most days, but no major rainfall events
are currently anticipated over the upcoming week.

Hamrick