Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
147 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Valid 00Z Mon Sep 9 2024 - 00Z Mon Sep 16 2024

The latest ensemble means are in good agreement on an upper level
low closing off to the northeast of the Islands through early next
week. This will support a meandering stationary front that would
likely be over the central and northern Islands, and the guidance
suggests a surface low will form near 30 degrees north and slowly
drift west, along with the frontal boundary, through the middle to
end of the week. The surface high then builds back to the north of
the Islands.

In terms of sensible weather, generally lighter and more variable
flow for the first half of the week can be expected with the col
in place and the frontal boundary nearby, based on the latest
model guidance.  A more steady easterly flow resumes by the end of
the week with the surface high rebuilding north of the state.  The
mainly terrain favored showers can be expected most days, but no
major rainfall events are currently anticipated over the upcoming
week with the deepest tropical moisture remaining well to the
south.

Hamrick