Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EDT Tue Oct 01 2024

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 02 2024 - 00Z Wed Oct 09 2024

Today's guidance maintains fairly good continuity, showing mostly
light showers through the period with precipitable water values
tending to vary within the near to somewhat below normal range. 
Moderate trades with primarily mountain/windward shower focus
should continue through Thursday. Then trades will likely trend
lighter into the weekend as a front to the north sufficiently
weakens surface ridging to the north.  Sea/land breezes may affect
the distribution of rainfall late week through the weekend. 
Consensus depicts a rebound of trades to moderate speeds by early
next week as high pressure bridges across the mid-latitude Pacific
once again, returning the shower focus to windward locales.

Upper level forecasts continue to show a ridge overhead into
Wednesday, followed by a transition to generally cyclonic flow for
a time but still with spread and run-to-run variability among the
guidance, increasing with time.  The latest majority cluster
suggests the axis of the mean trough will be east of the main
islands to some degree, with even the potential for ridging just
to the west to move in by around Monday-Tuesday. While the 00Z
CMC/CMCens mean are on their own with their height falls moving in
from the west, latest machine learning models vary widely enough
to include the full range of dynamical solutions.  Preferences
remains with a conservative blended/mean approach while the spread
persists.

Rausch