Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 07 2024 - 00Z Thu Nov 14 2024

A cold front now reaching the region should stall and dissipate,
while strong northeasterly winds prevail late this week.  Expect
trades to remain brisk while turning more easterly during the
weekend as high pressure passes by to the north.  Then winds
should be easterly or east-southeasterly through the early-middle
part of next week.  Central Pacific pattern differences arise
toward midweek, with dynamical/machine learning (ML) guidance
split as to how much of a front/inverted trough there may be off
to the west of the main islands--affecting the orientation of
trades over the state.  At the very least, 18Z/00Z GFS runs may be
a little too far east with their feature by next Wednesday.

It took a number of days, but the 00Z ECMWF finally resembles
other guidance more closely for shearing trough energy that likely
consolidates into a weak upper low over/south of the state from
late week onward.  However the latest ML runs and most other
dynamical solutions advertise a slightly farther south and west
low track versus the ECMWF, favoring an evolution closer to the
GFS.  Windward/mountain-focused showers should trend lighter late
this week as moisture declines to below climatology, followed by
some increase around the weekend and/or early next week due to
flow around the upper low.  Precipitable water values may decline
a bit thereafter.

Rausch