Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
157 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Nov 17 2024 - 00Z Sun Nov 24 2024

The models agree well with a rather strong surface high situated
to the northeast of Hawaii through Sunday night, with a tight
pressure gradient over the state and resulting in windy conditions
and winds generally out of the east.  The high should gradually
weaken some going into Tuesday and beyond as a trough to the north
pushes it to the east.  The ensemble means differ some with a cold
front north of the state, with the ECENS a little quicker to bring
the boundary closer to the state by midweek.  In any case, there
will likely be a col in the subtropical surface ridge, and thus
lighter winds going into the early to middle part of next week.

In terms of precipitation prospects, there will likely be more
trade wind based showers across the east-facing terrain through
the weekend, especially across the Big Island.  Other than that,
no major heavy rainfall events appear likely over the next seven
days.  There may also be some fire weather concerns for the drier
parts of the Islands on the days with higher winds.

Hamrick