Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 00Z Tue Nov 19 2024 - 00Z Tue Nov 26 2024

Surface high pressure situated northeast of the state early in the
week is expected to weaken my midweek as a relatively strong cold
front settles in near 30 degrees north.  A weaker pressure
gradient will become established across the Islands by the end of
the week with the cold front lurking north of the state.  Trade
wind flow should abate compared to the ongoing windy conditions
based on the latest model guidance.  By the weekend, the ensemble
means are picking up on a surface low developing near 35 degrees
north, with the GEFS mean slightly north of the EC mean.  It
currently looks like the majority of the heavier rainfall from the
front and the surface low should remain well to the north of the
Islands.

Hamrick