Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Mon Dec 02 2024

Valid 00Z Tue Dec 03 2024 - 00Z Tue Dec 10 2024

Guidance reasonably agrees in support of only limited shower
activity and moisture in a weak flow with land-sea breezes and
upper ridging aloft through midweek. More southerly responding
winds will then act to increase moisture across the region ahead
of an approaching frontal boundary as an amplified upper trough
passes to the north of the state. The front may slowly move
southeastward across the state starting Thursday and
lingering/stalling later week into the weekend. This should lead
to increasing rain chances and some gusty post-frontal winds. This
frontal boundary will gradually dissipate next weekend, but
residual moisture will likely linger through the weekend. Forecast
spread increases at these longer time frames, but given upstream
upper ridge amplitude over the west-central Pacific common in
guidance, favor the approach/digging of an amplified upper trough
and another wet surface front toward the state later weekend into
early next week, more in line with best clustered guidance from
the 00 UTC ECMWF/Canadian and trends from the 00 UTC UKMET versus
the less amplified 00 UTC GFS.

Schichtel