Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Dec 22 2024 - 00Z Sun Dec 29 2024

A very active Pacific storm track will be in place north of Hawaii
through the upcoming weekend, with an extremely strong surface low
tracking rapidly east between 40-45 degrees north through early
Sunday, and its trailing cold front will likely reach or just pass
the northwestern Islands.  A second front follows behind this one
in rapid succession.  Meanwhile, the axis of the subtropical ridge
will generally be centered just north of 20 degrees through the
weekend, placing the state in a region of weaker pressure gradient
and thus lighter and more variable winds. 

Going into next week, the model guidance agrees well that the
surface high should rebuild north of the state near 30 degrees
north, and thus a more steady easterly trade wind flow should
resume.  This high should then be northeast of the state by
midweek with an expansive low pressure system developing well to
the northwest of the state.  Another col may develop in the
surface ridge as another trailing cold front approaches the state
late in the week, with the ensemble means in reasonably good
agreement on this.  No major rainfall events are currently
expected across the state over the next 7 days.

Hamrick