Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024

Valid 00Z Sat Dec 28 2024 - 00Z Sat Jan 04 2025

Mean southeasterly flow is forecast to flip to having a northerly
component on Friday in response to a cold front approaching the
western islands. Winds are likely to stay weak enough for a
sea/land breeze pattern to set up though, while a subtropical
ridge is in place aloft. By Saturday, the upper ridge axis is
likely to break over Hawaii in response to a trough that
eventually produces an upper low setting up southeast of the state
early next week. Meanwhile the front is forecast to push into
Kauai and perhaps to Oahu, providing a focus for moderate to
possibly heavy rain showers this weekend as it stalls and then
dissipates. Behind the front, a surface high will set up north of
the state and allow for trade winds to resume this weekend to
early next week. Moisture remaining in place will help produce
showers, which should favor windward/mauka areas due to the wind
pattern. The moist trade wind pattern is likely to continue into
midweek. By late next week, winds look to veer again in response
to another front northwest of Hawaii.

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