Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

Valid 00Z Fri 14 Feb 2025 - 00Z Fri 21 Feb 2025

The models and ensembles changed little over the past day with 
respect to their general forecast of a couple fronts affecting 
parts of the state late this week into early next week, followed 
by a return to more stable trades next Tuesday-Thursday. There are
some modest day-to-day refinements though. Expect southerly winds
on Thursday ahead of the first front that should reach near or 
into the northwestern islands by Friday and stall, bringing a 
brief increase of rainfall to that part of the state. The front 
will dissipate/lift northward by Saturday while trades briefly 
rebound a bit as weak high pressure passes by to the north. The 
next front should arrive early next week. An area of enhanced 
moisture approaching from the southeast may brush the Big Island 
around Saturday to promote some added rainfall there, and then 
reach the western islands by Sunday with the front's own moisture 
band arriving by Sunday-Monday. Those two days will offer greatest
potential for some locally heavy rainfall over the western part 
of the state. Guidance continues to show this front dissipating 
after Monday while high pressure off to the northeast helps to 
establish moderate trades for Tuesday-Thursday. Above average 
precipitable water values should gradually decline and reach near 
climatology by next Thursday, though weak shortwave energy passing
over the area into midweek may still enhance shower activity a 
bit.

Rausch