Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Mar 11 2025 - 00Z Tue Mar 18 2025

Surface high pressure in place to the north of Hawaii will promote
continued breezy to windy trades for the next several days. On
Monday, a weakening frontal boundary will push slowly south and
allow for rainfall to focus over the Big Island before shifting
farther south and dissipating by Tuesday. The HREF shows focused
rainfall over eastern slopes of the Big Island given the trades,
but with some rain possibly reaching leeward areas. A reasonably
moist pattern with showers favoring windward/mauka areas should
persist as the week progresses.

Late this week into the weekend, the surface high is forecast to
drift southeastward, and meanwhile an upper trough pushing a cold
front will approach west of the state. This combination should
allow winds to weaken gradually from breezy to more moderate
levels, while veering some and reorienting best rain chances on
the southeastern sides of the islands. Model guidance shows
moisture levels increasing by early next week ahead of the front,
so will continue to monitor for possible increases in rain amounts
by that time.


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