Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 00Z Wed 26 Mar 2025 - 00Z Wed 02 Apr 2025

As an initial stalled front near the northern islands lifts back 
to the north, expect multiple days of east/southeasterly trades 
that should extend into at least part of the weekend. Today's 
guidance continues to suggest that background flow will be 
sufficient to support some windward focus for showers, but at 
times it could be weak enough to allow for sea breeze influence. 
Continuity looks good for the late week into early weekend time 
frame providing the lightest rainfall as an upper ridge builds 
into and settles over the area. The GFS/GEFS are still a little 
weaker with this ridge than the majority cluster but have been 
gradually trending stronger. From around late weekend into next 
week the low level winds should turn more southerly and trend a 
little stronger ahead of a developing system well to the 
west/northwest of the state. The axis of heavier rainfall should 
remain west of the main islands through Tuesday but some spread 
develops for how close this axis reaches. Latest machine learning 
models support a slower progression more like recent GFS runs 
versus the farther east 00Z ECMWF/CMC and 12Z ECens mean.

Rausch