Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 418 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2013 Valid 00Z Sun Jul 14 2013 - 00Z Tue Jul 16 2013 ...Heavy rains and thunderstorms are in store for the Southern Plains... ...Flash flooding and severe weather possible across the Dakotas and Minnesota... Cool and wet weather will accompany a closed low retrograding from the Ohio Valley to the Southern Plains this weekend. Initially...precipitation will be rather sparse underneath the low...but by Sunday morning...some moderate to heavy rains with embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions of Oklahoma and Kansas as the upper low dips more southward into a juicier airmass. These dumping rains...and potential for flash flooding...will gradually shift southwestward Sunday evening/Monday while the upper low slides into Texas. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to breakout near a frontal boundary stuck over the northern tier of the country. The best chance for organized convection will be across the Dakotas and into Minnesota. Given the abundance of moisture and instability in place across the region...these storms will have the potential to produce heavy downpours and severe weather. Wet and stormy will remain the story across the Southeast...Tennessee Valley...and southern Mid-Atlantic states over the next few days. A stalled frontal boundary will serve as a focal point for convection...and storms should decrease in number as the front gradually weakens. Farther north...conditions will begin to warm up and clear out as a ridge builds in over the northern Mid-Atlantic states. However...daytime heating and upslope flow against the Appalachians could lead to a few scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. Monsoonal flow will continue over the four corner states throughout the forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Great Basin and southern/central Rockies...especially during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Gerhardt Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php