Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 443 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2013 Valid 00Z Tue Jul 30 2013 - 00Z Thu Aug 01 2013 ...A threat for flash flooding and severe weather exists across areas of Oklahoma/Kansas through tomorrow morning... ...Below normal temperatures/dew points will persist over much of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast... To conclude the month of July, an expansive ridge is forecast to remain parked across the Southern Rockies eastward along the Gulf Coast region. To its immediate north is a mid-level impulse which will slowly track toward the east the next couple of days. The initial motion is expected to be rather slow while crossing Oklahoma/Kansas and eventually into the Ozarks. This disturbance in combination with a moist and unstable air mass in place will allow deep convection to develop and persist over this region through early Tuesday. As a result, expect the possibility of severe weather and flash flooding over this portion of the U.S. before the thunderstorm complex advances into the Tennessee/Ohio River Valleys the following days. Across the northeastern states, conditions are cooler and less humid compared to recent days. This is a result of a well-defined cold front which pushed through last night ushering in a modified Canadian air mass into the region. Overnight lows tonight should easily drop into the 50s with pockets of upper 40s given ideal radiational cooling conditions while highs are limited to the upper 70s/low 80s. By mid-week, the weather should gradually deteriorate over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic as the aforementioned system in the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley advances into the region. Elsewhere, a stalled boundary lingering along the Southeastern U.S./Gulf Coast will aid in daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms the next couple of days. Looking up into the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains, an amplified upper trof digging through the region will enhance the threat for showers and thunderstorms. This is particularly the case on Tuesday where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the Dakotas in a slight risk for severe weather. Over the southwestern states, near normal temperatures appear to be the rule with highs across the valleys in the 80s/90s while desert readings will more likely range between 100 to 110 degrees F. Rubin-Oster Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php