Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 437 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2013 Valid 12Z Wed Jul 31 2013 - 12Z Fri Aug 02 2013 ...Conditions will become increasingly unsettled over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States... ...Storms developing over the Central Plains on Thursday will carry a threat of flash flooding and severe weather... Conditions will become increasingly unsettled over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states over the next few days as an organized area of storms over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys progress eastward over the Appalachians. An abundance of Gulf moisture surging northward ahead of an approaching surface wave and cold front will fuel showers and thunderstorms from the eastern Gulf Coast to Pennsylvania. Although the widespread threat for flash flooding and severe weather has diminished with this system...heavy downpours and strong storms will still be a possibility. A cold front crossing the northern tier will trigger scattered convection as it pushes out of the Upper Midwest and into the Northeast during the short range period. Initially...precipitation totals will be fairly light with the front...but some heavier amounts are expected as the front crosses the Great Lakes and developing storms are able to tap into more moisture. The tail end of the cold front crossing the northern tier will settle in and serve as a focal point for convection over the Central Plains...Central Rockies...and northern Great Basin the next couple of days. Developing storms will have the potential to pack quite the punch...with both flash flooding and severe weather a possibility across the region. Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for the latest information on severe weather. A closed upper vortex spinning off the West Coast will gradually move inland Wednesday and Thursday...bringing an increased chance for scattered shower activity into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West. Gerhardt Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php