Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 407 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2013 Valid 00Z Thu Aug 15 2013 - 00Z Sat Aug 17 2013 ...Heavy rains...with the potential for flash flooding...expected for the Southeast... ...The taste of Fall will continue from the Great Lakes to the Northeast... ...Severe storms possible for portions of the Central and Southern Plains... Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to focus along a frontal boundary slowly sinking through the southern tier of the Nation. On Thursday...conditions will begin to dry out a bit over the Western and Central Gulf Coast states...where the boundary should drop far enough south to keep the bulk of the heavy precipitation just offshore. Farther east...however...the boundary will linger over the Carolinas and Southeastern U.S....allowing for additional days of scattered convection. A warm and juicy airmass in place should fuel moderate to locally heavy rains...and a surface low meandering along the front will really help enhance precipitation amounts. Flash flooding will become a concern as rainfall totals continue to add up across the region. Despite the date on the calendar...a cool and dry airmass in place will make conditions feel more like Fall from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. Overnight lows dropping into the 50s and even 40s will make for some brisk mornings...but abundant sunshine underneath a strong surface ridge should make for some very pleasant afternoons. An exception to this will be over interior New England...where a weak disturbance could bring some isolated showers into the region by the end of the work week. Across the Great Plains states...showers and thunderstorms should continue to fire up along and east of a lingering frontal boundary stretched through the region. Impulses of energy sliding down the eastern side of an upper ridge building in over the Intermountain region will help some of these storms become more organized and capable of producing severe weather. A Pacific front approaching the coast will bring moisture back into the Northwestern corner of the country. However...the system is expected to weaken as it moves inland on Thursday...keeping precipitation totals light and mostly confined to the coastal regions and Cascades. Gerhardt Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php